It has become clear from further reports finding their way to me from multiple sources that a secret meeting did indeed take place on the Shankill on Wednesday night.
As I reported on this blog yesterday, the meeting was attended by prominent members of the UVF.
Earlier today I told the Nolan Show how my sources are now feeding back to me their understanding that the decisions taken at the meeting were yet to be duly filtered down to the rank-and-file.
This will likely now only come as a surprise to those rank-and-file members who have not seen my blog post, social media feeds, a report in the Irish News or, indeed, my interview with Stephen Nolan.
One thing I am certain about is it’s going to be a very busy 48 hours for all those in leadership positions within the paramilitary organisation. An organisation, I might add, we have been repeatedly told has “gone away.”
The UVF now finds itself heading towards its very own D-Day: A showdown between the leadership and their members across the province on the long-burning issue of the conduct of Winston “Winkie” Irvine.
Spoiler Alert!
As I revealed in my blog, there were a number of allegations put to the UVF leadership at Wednesday’s high-level meeting.
A. Money, Status and Power.
In an attempt to placate the most vociferous critics – described to me as “livid” – I understand the leadership moved to reassure them that Irvine had been expelled from the organisation. One Brigade Staff representative said he hadn’t spoken with Irvine since his arrest.
Early this morning one source told me the meeting hadn’t been common knowledge amongst the rank-and-file. They said it now appeared area commanders were being dispatched to take soundings about what the thinking of the grassroots about the Irvine situation.
My source also described how, as the news began to filter down the ranks, there was jubilation at the leadership’s decisive stance.
As readers will be well-aware, terror groups in Northern Ireland – unlike some of their counterparts in other parts of the world – are strictly hierarchical organisations. In other words, decisions are taken at the top and cascade their way down the ranks via a robust ‘chain-of-command’.
Given the UVF has always styled itself along British Army lines, it is no surprise they have behaved in this way.
Take a look at any IMC or IRC report over the past 20 years and you will see talk of certain activities being “sanctioned” or not, of meetings being held between paramilitary leaders and their followers, and, in some cases, between these individuals and government ministers.
Although they are frequently derided by paramilitary fanatics as purveyors of “hearsay” from “the dogs on the street,” ordinary people living in deprived and marginalised areas know the truth of how these groups are still part of the fabric of communities.
Some might say it is hardwired into their DNA. I know this because I grew up in these areas and I still return home whenever I can.
I see what they see.
There can be no meaningful conflict transformation process while illegal armed groups retain coercive control in these communities.
I refuse to bury my head ostrich-like in the sand on this issue.
A Ringside Seat to the UVF Circus
Some members of polite society reading this blog might think, “sure it doesn’t matter what the UVF leadership thinks – they shouldn’t be in existence. They will eventually go away because they’ve told us they will.”
“And, besides, who really cares if Winkie Irvine is a paramilitary, or not? Surely, as he and his character referees told the court, he is also involved in peace-building. Surely that ought to admonish him of his crime of ferrying “messages” in the boot of his car, including viable firearms and ammunition?”
The harsh reality is, as my sources have reminded me, “Winston Irvine is not well-liked.” In fact some have gone as far as to say he is “roundly hated.”
With jubilance likely to play like a soundtrack in social clubs and bars this weekend, it is worth keeping in mind how, even in 2025, there are still more members in loyalist paramilitary organisations than when the ceasefires were first called in 1994. That’s going to be some size of party!
The whole situation has become farcical on one level. And we have all been afforded ringside seats in this circus owing to the group’s lack of internal security. Leaks are common as readers of Sunday red tops will be only too aware.
On another level, though, this is a serious matter, particularly for the UVF which professes to want to “leave the stage.”
If they do not take decisive action on this matter they will be seen as a laughing stock by their supporters, to say nothing of their own members.
That may make it more, not less, likely they will not be able to engage in meaningful “group transition”.
What about the Ordinary 5’8″s?
If we draw back from the circus monetarily there are serious questions to be asked about why certain individuals have been enabled to grow their status in deprived and marginalised communities.
As the personal fiefdoms of prominent ‘peace-builders’ begin to crumble and are exposed, we will undoubtedly be afforded a more sustained glimpses into what SDLP MLA Matthew O’Toole has called a “post-conflict Shangri-La.”
We should keep in mind the truism of how, when people who are disliked are no longer feared but resented, there is a tendency of queues of disaffected people to form up.
One of my sources told me how people are falling over themselves to call in personally to see the UVF Brigade Staff. I’m told they are asking the group to launch inquiries into Irvine’s activities across the piste.
My long years of experience tells me the UVF Brigade Staff have taken the decision to move on Irvine now because their support-base is demanding it.
The last time the Brigade Staff did this was in November 2023 when they moved to stand down their rogue East Belfast Battalion.
For the reasons outlined above, there is a high likelihood they will double down on their decision to expel Irvine from their ranks.
The big question then becomes: What about the others who remain in similar positions?
At this point the leadership may well lose control of the narrative to the “ordinary 5’8″s” [a euphemism for UVF volunteers] who have become increasingly important in determining the future direction of the organisation.
I spoke to one source with a long association with loyalist paramilitarism about what the 5’8″s might be thinking as they go into meetings over the weekend.
“A man with 18 convictions [Winston Irvine] and up to his neck in all sorts of activity – and the great and the good are saying ‘what a guy?!’ Let me tell you something. I’m an ex-prisoner with a couple of convictions and I can’t get a job in Kentucky Fried Chicken or packing cheese in a factory.”
This is the harsh reality also confronting rank-and-file UVF members.
As another source close to the group told me simply, “if this was anybody else, would they be treated in the same way?”
That’s now a question the grassroots must answer for themselves.
You can find more about the strategic dilemmas of loyalist paramilitaries in my book, UVF: Behind the Mask by clicking on this link.