In the past few minutes my sources close to the DUP have confirmed that the deal is now done. The party is returning to Stormont.
This confirms my analysis in an earlier blog post before Christmas that “talk of talks” was merely a ploy to steady those frightened horses within the party who are evangelically determined to stay out because of the continuing stumbling block of the Northern Ireland Protocol and its modifications under the Windsor Framework Agreement.
The deal is done but can Sir Jeffrey Donaldson sell it to his party?
The deal is rumoured to be sealed with the visit to Belfast by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar next week.
They say a week is a long time in politics and this will be something undoubtedly mulled over by Sir Jeffrey Donaldson as he performs a Herculean task to get the deal over the line with his own party.
Sir Jeffrey’s position was not helped by comments made yesterday to the BBC by the Chair of the Northern Ireland Affair’s Committee Sir Robert Buckland on the looming prospect of joint authority between the British and Irish governments in the event of no deal. The comments did not play out well with Unionists, though it was a coercive tactic that seems to have played well for the NIO.
Unionists now have a Hobson’s Choice (a free choice with only one real option): Go into Stormont – with what DUP direct rulers would say is still “joint authority with Europe” – or stay out and risk an increasingly relegated role in terms of joint authority with Ireland.
Sources also confirmed to me that the reform of Stormont will not only see the return to power sharing of the DUP – in conjunction with a more electorally dominant Sinn Féin and the middle-of-the-road Alliance Party – but it also appears that the UUP and SDLP are going into opposition. This is long something seen as necessary to ensure greater political stability inside the institutions.
One thing is for certain. Whether Sir Jeffrey can finally sell this Hobson’s Choice in a more positive light – while avoiding a split within his party and, worryingly, any kind of street protests from loyalists – will reveal much about the future direction of Ulster Unionism in 2024.
Aaron Edwards is the author of A People Under Siege: The Unionists of Northern Ireland, from Partition to Brexit and Beyond, which can be purchased from Amazon and all good bookshops.