As far as long-drawn out political negotiations go, the one between the DUP and the British government must be one of the longest in Northern Ireland’s modern history.
Even the bargaining between the old Stormont government under Brian Faulkner and Edward Heath regarding the rescinding of security powers in 1972 took less time to collapse those devolved institutions, dealing a catastrophic blow to Unionism from which, arguably, it never recovered.
Another strategic shock dealt to Unionism was the DUP’s evangelical conversion to Brexit, a foolhardy enterprise that brought more risks than rewards. Arguably, the DUP’s extremist push for a ‘hard Brexit’ is still having a discombobulating effect on the party.
Meanwhile, inside the DUP the party continues to leak information about collective decision-making on a grander scale than British secret agents inside the Provisional Army Council.
Nearly four weeks ago I was tipped off that the DUP were considering returning to Stormont, a path made less risky that week by the UVF Brigade Staff standing down its East Belfast leadership who were accused of drug dealing and other forms of criminality.
It was also made easier because that led to the coincidental neutralisation of an associate of theirs – some refer to as an agent provocateur – an individual who has done everything he can to endanger the peace process. Now, with the yardies gone, the cosplay commissar has no tin soldiers to play with and must resort to carping from the sidelines.
On Saturday I received information that the DUP leadership had finally decided to return to Stormont. So certain was my source they even highlighted a timetable that said the announcement would be made on Tuesday followed by a DUP Executive meeting ratifying Sir Jeffrey’s deal on Wednesday.
After revealing this on X (formerly known as Twitter), a huge number of signs appeared across Unionists areas of Northern Ireland, from Ballymoney to Sandy Row warning against a “DUP Sell Out”.
Sir Jeffrey immediately condemned the fly posters on Sunday, saying he would not be intimidated by such “shadowy behaviour.”
The reality is that while some of those mounting the campaign are members or supporters of the TUV, I can exclusively reveal that the real opponents are inside the DUP itself.
They have been hard at work briefing their pettifoggers and whipping up enough of a frenzy to spook the horses.
This unholy alliance of TUV supporters, DUP direct rulers and loyalist paramilitaries (one source claims members of the UVF) has certainly created the feeling of a backlash.
And the net result? On Monday morning a DUP source confirmed to the BBC that there would be no deal before Christmas. “The DUP is condition-led not calendar-led,” the source said.
So, where does that leave Sir Jeffrey in the run up to Christmas after having been visited by these ghosts of Christmas Past?
I am led to believe he is now seeking to redouble his efforts to pushing up the numbers of those in the party likely to support his trajectory of returning to Stormont.
And there is now a clock running. To be clear, it is calendar-led, rather than condition-led.
Exactly a month from now, the parties have to form an Executive or Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris will be forced to either collapse the Assembly or go back to parliament to have the law changed.
With Sir Jeffrey spooked by the backlash, he is now likely to push to consolidate his position and that of his pragmatic, indirect rule wing of the party.
There are now four weeks left for him to do so and, crucially, to at least reach a detente with the idealistic, direct ruler wing of the party that will off-set future shadowy behaviour from within.